Monaco Grand Prix qualifying: Will this be Charles Leclerc’s day?

Welcome to qualifying day on the Monaco Grand Prix.

On Method 1’s largest stage, qualifying day is every thing.

Which will bode effectively for hometown hero Charles Leclerc, who topped the timing sheets in Friday’s second follow session. If historical past holds, that seemingly means a pole place for Leclerc, because the final 5 editions of the Monaco Grand Prix have seen the driving force atop the timing sheets in FP2 go on to seize pole place.

Even scarier for the remainder of the sector?

Leclerc thinks he can discover much more time on the Monte Carlo streets.

“I believe there’s extra tempo in me simply placing every thing collectively,” mentioned Leclerc following Friday’s two follow periods. “For those who have a look at my three sectors, there was fairly a little bit of lap time in them if you put all of it collectively, in order that would be the fundamental focus for tomorrow. However let’s say efficiency and feeling is there.”

Leclerc’s struggles in his hometown race are effectively documented, because the Monégasque driver has but to style victory at dwelling at any degree of racing. The truth is, Leclerc is amongst these 5 earlier drivers who’ve taken pole place after topping the timing sheets in FP2, as he did simply that within the 2021 Monaco Grand Prix. Leclerc was on provisional pole in Q3 that 12 months, and a late crash by the Ferrari driver in that third session froze the sector, clinching pole place for the hometown hero.

However the injury was sufficient that his SF21 suffered a failure on the reconnaissance lap, and he didn’t begin the race.

Maybe … maybe that each one adjustments for Leclerc beginning later as we speak.

Leclerc’s possibilities to interrupt his hometown curse is probably the primary storyline for qualifying day on the Monaco Grand Prix, however it isn’t the one one.

Is Crimson Bull actually on the again foot?

Suppose again to every week in the past.

The tales popping out of Imola, web site of final weekend’s Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, mirror the tales we’re at present listening to as we speak. Max Verstappen was pissed off with the RB20, different groups have been atop the timing sheets — every week in the past Leclerc was quickest in each FP1 and FP2 — and maybe the door was open for one more workforce to actually carry the battle to Verstappen and firm in qualifying, and the race itself.

Nicely, as we’ve seen so many occasions earlier than, Verstappen slammed that door shut. He took pole place after a stronger exhibiting in FP3, and went on to win the race on Sunday.

However this weekend feels slightly totally different.

First there was Verstappen’s suggestions in regards to the RB20 all through follow, which he in comparison with a kangaroo:

Then there was what the driving force mentioned following the session, when he brushed apart comparisons to final week’s struggles in Imola. “I don’t assume I even can describe what is definitely occurring. It’s simply very troublesome. It’s not one thing that I didn’t count on, nevertheless it’s undoubtedly on the greater finish of the worst potential consequence of the weekend to date,” mentioned Verstappen on Friday.

“Imola was utterly totally different, additionally totally different points which you can remedy with set-up,” he continued. “These sort of stuff you can’t remedy with set-up.

“It’s how the automotive is made and designed, and these sort of stuff you can’t change in a single day, so we’re caught with that. We’ll attempt to make it slightly bit higher however I don’t count on any miracles,” continued Verstappen. “[Ferrari] are miles forward. I’m not even eager about that for tomorrow, I simply need to try to remedy the problems that we’ve, try to make it slightly bit extra driveable, after which we’ll see the place we find yourself.”

F1 followers and analysts alike have heard this story earlier than. In spite of everything, when sharing a bit summarizing his Friday struggles on Threads final week I did so with a caption that learn “I imply [Verstappen] will nonetheless most likely put it on pole and win on Sunday however …”

And he did simply that.

Can he try this once more this week, or are Verstappen and Crimson Bull actually on the again foot heading into qualifying?

A Mercedes stunner?

One other stunning observe from Friday’s twin follow periods?

Some stunning power from Mercedes.

The workforce has been speaking about progress these previous few weeks, however Friday was maybe the primary day all season when Mercedes actually seemed like they might battle for factors, however for a podium. Lewis Hamilton topped the timing sheets in FP1, with teammate George Russell coming in P3, they usually have been sturdy once more in FP2, with Hamilton up in second.

Might the Silver Arrows ship a Saturday shocker in Monaco?

“It’s been a superb day, most likely one of the best we’ve had to date this 12 months, and the automotive is feeling very optimistic. This observe is simply superb in an F1 automotive, and I’ve been having fun with my driving as we speak – I used to be pleasantly shocked by the grip degree and the way in which the automotive was responding, which made it a way more gratifying trip than the final two years,” mentioned Hamilton within the workforce’s post-practice report. “Within the second session, it felt a bit much less snug, and we’ve bought a number of work to do in a single day to enhance the lengthy runs and the entrance graining. It was a sense optimistic on the decrease gas, and we don’t need to lose that, however our focus now could be to enhance on the long term.”

Whereas Russell skilled some vibrations within the steering wheel throughout FP2, which hampered his efficiency, he too thought it was probably the greatest Fridays the workforce has had this season.

“That was one in every of our greatest Fridays of the 12 months, and the automotive is feeling one of the best I’ve ever had in Monaco. My session was restricted by the steering vibration – as quickly as I touched the brakes, the steering system was shaking, and on a observe like this the place you want confidence to assault, that basically set me again,” mentioned Russell. “Each workforce is creating so rapidly, and you may see how a lot quicker the lap occasions are this 12 months than final. The automotive is feeling good, and Lewis’s occasions confirmed the efficiency that’s in there, however Charles (Leclerc) could be very fast, and we all know as effectively how rapidly issues can change. I hope we shall be preventing for the highest 5 tomorrow.”

Simulation knowledge from F1.com reveals that they very effectively may very well be within the battle for the highest 5 tomorrow:

Much like the Crimson Bull dialogue, we’ve been down this highway earlier than with Mercedes. They have been sturdy within the single Friday follow on the Miami Grand Prix, for instance, earlier than fading over the remainder of the week.

However much like how issues really feel totally different at Crimson Bull when in comparison with earlier weeks, this too feels slightly totally different relating to Mercedes. They could actually be within the battle.

Don’t forget about McLaren

Then there’s McLaren.

It was a little bit of a combined Friday for McLaren. Oscar Piastri was the second-fastest driver in FP1, with Lando Norris shut behind in P4.

The second follow session was a little bit of a distinct story, with Norris up in P5 and Piastri exterior the highest ten, down in P12.

Nonetheless, the workforce referred to as it a “productive” afternoon, they usually consider they’ve the MCL38 — Ayrton Senna tribute livery and all — in a superb window heading into Saturday.

“That’s Friday executed in Monaco. I’d say it’s been a reasonably good day general. The tempo has seemed good nevertheless it’s very, very tight between loads of groups as we speak, so it’s troublesome to say the place we might web out,” mentioned Piastri within the workforce’s post-practice report. “We’ve bought some issues to take a look at and tweak in a single day, however I really feel like we’re in a superb place. It’s going to be an thrilling Saturday.”

“It was a productive day of follow right here in Monaco. We labored by our deliberate programme with none subject. The threatened rain didn’t materialise, so we had loads of time to guage tyres, perceive setup and provides the drivers as a lot observe time as potential,” mentioned Staff Principal Andrea Stella. “The battle on the entrance appears very attention-grabbing: there are fairly a couple of fast groups. We’ll work laborious this night to maximise our potential, have a superb qualifying session tomorrow and rating factors in a race that will nonetheless be affected by the climate.”

Who wins the Aston Martin/VCARB battle?

If the qualifying simulation knowledge holds to type, the ultimate two spots in Q3 might come all the way down to a battle between Aston Martin and Visa Money App RB F1 workforce.

The VCARB drivers specifically sounded assured following Friday’s periods.

“It was one other optimistic first day for us. Straight from FP1, I felt optimistic. There are nonetheless some little issues we will enhance on to extract the efficiency however that’s what follow is for. For instance, I believe we will enhance basically within the braking part as a result of we had a pair slides there and clearly with this C5 [tire], it’s very delicate,” mentioned Yuki Tsunoda within the workforce’s post-practice report. “Aside from that, warmup is sweet and every thing is optimistic, so it’s simply fine-tuning the little issues that at all times depend, particularly right here in Monaco. The overall tempo is there and I’m wanting ahead to bettering one other step tomorrow, maximising it for qualifying.”

“I’m proud of the work we did as we speak, I believe that we’ve some tempo in hand, and doubtless the timesheets didn’t present the total image, so hopefully placing on some softs tomorrow we could be preventing inside the highest 10,” added Daniel Ricciardo. “I really feel like I bought myself into a greater rhythm in the direction of the tip of FP2 and was proud of the final lap I did on the mediums. Contemplating every thing, I believe we’re in a superb place and now it’s a matter of placing the setup collectively.”

A captivating battle between these two groups is beginning to take type within the Constructors’ Championship. In the meanwhile Aston Martin sits fifth with 44 factors, 24 factors forward of sixth-place VCARB. However the workforce that has the stronger day on Saturday shall be in good postion to both lengthen that lead — or reduce into that deficit — on Sunday.