Monaco Grand Prix 2024: Charles Leclerc’s date with future

78 laps.

260.286 kilometers.

One date with future.

Nonetheless you measure it, Charles Leclerc is on the cusp of lastly slaying the non-public dragon that’s his historical past within the Monaco Grand Prix, his house race.

Leclerc’s struggles within the race held on the streets the place he grew up and discovered to drive are well-documented, however the Ferrari driver will as soon as once more be beginning on pole place within the Monaco Grand Prix.

And issues couldn’t be arrange higher for him to lastly break by way of with a win.

He could have teammate Carlos Sainz Jr. beginning behind him in P3, and whereas the Ferrari duo has not all the time labored collectively to perfection previously, Sainz’s feedback after qualifying point out that he — like a lot of the F1 world — is pulling for a Leclerc victory on Sunday.

“Yesterday, I seemed very fast on the long term, so for some cause, this weekend, I’ve been struggling on the quick runs, and the long term appeared significantly better, which is one thing we might want to look into, however I’m assured that tomorrow the tempo in the long term will probably be good,” stated Sainz trackside following qualifying. “It’s only a matter of observe place right here, and we’ve misplaced it with not an important quali place. However, you understand, it’s Monaco. Something can occur, like all the time, and we’ll give it our greatest shot, however the precedence will probably be to win with Charles tomorrow.”

Sainz doubled down on that assertion within the FIA Press Convention following qualifying.

“We are going to see what we will do in the beginning, what we will do with technique with a purpose to do each single bit doable to assist Charles to go and get that win. He’s been driving wonderful all weekend. I feel a part of that delta comes from Charles additionally being tremendous dedicated and having a very sturdy weekend,” added Sainz. “This weekend I feel he’s been on it since FP1 and he’s been extraordinarily fast. So yeah, we’ll do every little thing we will to win the race tomorrow.”

Now Leclerc has been on pole place earlier than at house, most not too long ago in 2022 when he had Sainz beginning alongside him in P2. However a botched technique name throughout a interval of rain within the race led to an notorious second the place Leclerc was informed to return into the pits, solely to get late phrase to remain on the observe. But it surely was too late as Leclerc had already dedicated to the pit cease and the workforce, which had simply serviced Sainz in entrance of him, was not fairly prepared for him.

The error value him useful observe place, and sure the race.

However that was 2022. That is 2024.

Certain he could have the McLaren duo of Oscar Piastri (P2) and Lando Norris (P4) to take care of, and Max Verstappen is all the time lurking regardless of beginning P6. However this could be his finest likelihood but to interrupt his Monaco curse.

And that continues to be — because it has all week — the most important storyline on this Grand Prix Sunday. However it isn’t the one one.

Photograph by Clive Rose/Getty Photographs

How excessive can Max Verstappen climb?

As all the time, Max Verstappen is lurking.

But when the three-time Drivers’ Champion goes to be the one to disclaim Leclerc his first win at house, it can probably take one thing particular from the motive force, an intervention through a security automobile and/or climate, or maybe a mixture of all three. In spite of everything, the final time a driver beginning outdoors the highest three gained in Monaco was 1996, when Olivier Panis took victory from 14th on the grid.

As for sixth the place Verstappen is beginning? No driver beginning sixth has ever gained the Monaco Grand Prix.

And with present forecasts calling for only a scant likelihood of rain tomorrow — 3% as of publication — a type of above choices could be off the desk for Verstappen, who was not optimistic about his possibilities following qualifying on Saturday.

“It’s not going to be gratifying,” stated Verstappen. “Each lap that I did thus far, within the low-speed it’s a problem to be constant. In fact, within the race, you don’t push it to the restrict, everyone seems to be saving [the car] and simply ensuring you will have the [tires] to go together with it. We’ll all settle down somewhat bit.”

Nonetheless, which may not assist Verstappen, given how far he must climb.

“However we don’t have the quickest automobile anyway, so all of the vehicles which are forward of us are quicker,” added the Purple Bull driver. “We’ll simply attempt to comply with. It’s Monaco, issues can occur, however I additionally don’t anticipate miracles.”

What’s going to McLaren throw at Ferrari, and may they win within the pits?

The workforce with maybe the very best likelihood at denying Leclerc hometown glory?

McLaren.

With Oscar Piastri beginning second alongside Leclerc, and teammate Lando Norris beginning fourth proper behind Piastri, McLaren has an opportunity to grab the lead early within the race, and doubtlessly play protection over the course of 78 laps. Given the difficulties in overtaking, that’s typically a successful proposition in Monaco.

However like every little thing with the Monaco Grand Prix, making an attempt to seize the lead in the beginning can be a tough proposition. So it would come all the way down to which workforce is best on pit lane.

“I imply, the run to Flip 1 is all the time your finest likelihood at any observe. Right here, clearly, it’s a really quick run, like we all know,” stated Piastri within the FIA Press Convention following qualifying. “Yeah, the technique, you possibly can attempt one thing as a result of except there’s an enormous tempo distinction, which I’m fairly positive there gained’t be, then overtaking is unimaginable right here. So, yeah, it’ll be gained or misplaced within the pits, most likely. So be sure that we’ve got an excellent day.”

Photograph by Jayce Illman/Getty Photographs

Can Pierre Gasly benefit from beginning contained in the factors?

A yr in the past, Esteban Ocon threatened for pole place and in the end certified third, and the Alpine driver completed there for his solely podium of the season.

This yr the Alpine driver beginning furthest up the grid is his teammate, Pierre Gasly. Gasly superior to Q3 for the primary time this season and can begin in tenth on Sunday.

However how excessive can Gasly cost up the grid Sunday, and may the Alpine driver benefit from beginning in a factors place and open his account for the 2024 marketing campaign?

2024 has been an uphill battle for the French workforce this yr, however with Ocon breaking by way of with the workforce’s first factors in Miami, Alpine has definitely proven progress the previous few weeks. But when Gasly is ready to decide up just a few spots, and financial institution some extra factors for the workforce, it will be an enormous step ahead for them.

Will Mercedes ship a shocker of their very own?

Can Mercedes profit from the chance they’ve on Sunday?

Following Friday George Russell acknowledged that he hoped the workforce could be preventing for a high 5 spot in qualifying, and Mercedes did simply that on Saturday. Russell will begin fifth on Sunday, with Lewis Hamilton proper behind him in seventh.

And whereas there was some frustration from Mercedes that they weren’t beginning increased, they’ve positively proven progress this week.

“If you look the ultimate positions on the time sheets, P5 and P7 most likely seems like a bit extra of the identical, however the truth is the tempo was good, and we have been just some milliseconds away from P2 or P3 with George,” stated Group Principal Toto Wolff following qualifying. “Lewis has put collectively a really sturdy weekend, but it surely wasn’t to be on that last run. The game is so shut proper now, most likely greater than it has ever been, and it’s a battle for tiny margins in each space. As all the time, it was a problem to search out the candy spot of the [tires], however we hit all our targets for these last laps and possibly that’s the tempo of the automobile proper now.

“Finally, this has all the time been a troublesome observe for us, and we’ve loved a reasonably aggressive weekend thus far. I additionally need to pay tribute to the work of the workforce again on the manufacturing unit to supply our updates for this race. They did a mega job to get all of them prepared and dealing correctly, and it’s nice to see everyone pushing flat out like we’re. Hopefully now we will construct from right here.”

As we’ll see in a second, Mercedes has some choices at their disposal relating to technique. However with each drivers inside the highest seven, and Monaco doubtlessly delivering yet another twist earlier than the ultimate chapter is written, the Silver Arrows are no less than within the battle.

Photograph by Kym Illman/Getty Photographs

What methods might we see groups make use of on Sunday?

There are some attention-grabbing tire methods to contemplate heading into the Monaco Grand Prix.

With two Ferraris and two McLarens up entrance, would possibly we see these groups go for a softer compound in the beginning? All three of the drivers beginning up entrance talked concerning the significance of the beginning, and whereas there’s a quick run into Flip 1 at Sainte Dedicate, each groups would possibly imagine both taking — or holding — the lead at Flip 1 is essential for a win tomorrow.

And whereas which may result in a pit cease on the sooner aspect to modify compounds, tire degradation isn’t too excessive at Monaco given the variety of low-speed corners, so drivers that begin on the softs can probably squeeze near 30 laps on the softest compound, earlier than bolting on a set of hards to run to the end.

Or these 4 would possibly play it secure and begin on the mediums. However would possibly we see, say, Russell beginning fifth or Verstappen beginning sixth determine to bolt on the softs and let it rip in the beginning?

Nonetheless, whereas drivers beginning in the back of discipline might additionally go for softs, hoping to choose up just a few locations because of the next stage of grip, they might additionally begin on the hards, run as alongside as doable, after which hope for assist. Ideally these drivers would see a clear race till after a cycle of pit stops, decide up observe place as different drivers dive down pit lane for his or her necessary tire change, after which hope that intervention through a security automobile comes.

However that’s fairly the needle to string, notably on a day anticipated to be dry.