Italy vs Belgium Prediction, Match Preview & Betting Suggestions, 11 October 2024

The UEFA Nations League A clash between Italy and Belgium on October 11, 2024, is expected to be a gripping match at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome. Italy tops Group 2 with 6 points, after impressive wins against Israel and France. Belgium, sitting in third place with 3 points, is aiming for redemption following a recent loss to France. With light rain and 12°C expected, the weather may play a pivotal role in the match dynamics.

Referee Espen Eskaas will oversee the game, adding authority to this high-stakes encounter. Italy comes into this match as the bookmaker’s favorite, given their solid form and home advantage. They haven’t lost in four consecutive home matches in the tournament and have a historical upper hand against Belgium.

Belgium, on the other hand, is dealing with internal issues and the absence of key players like Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku. With coach Domenico Tedesco under pressure, a win is crucial for their chances in the group.

Match Prediction: Italy to win, with recommended odds at 2.03. Given the current form, historical encounters, and Belgium’s instability, Italy appears poised to extend their dominance in the group.

Italy vs Belgium Prediction & Betting Tip

• Recommended bet: Italy to win.
• Reasoning: Italy is in b form, leading Group 2 with 6 points from two games. They secured impressive away victories against Israel and France. Additionally, Belgium’s recent away record is shaky, as they have only won 2 of their last 5 matches. Italy’s defense has been relatively robust, conceding just 3 goals in their last 5 matches. Historical context also favors Italy, having won their last three encounters against Belgium.
• | Italy vs. Belgium Prediction | | |——————————|———————————–| | Betting tip | Odds | | Italy to win | 2.03 |
• Italy has won their last three encounters against Belgium.
• Belgium hasn’t secured a win in their past three away matches.
• Italy is in top form, leading their group with solid defensive and offensive performances.

Italy vs Belgium Odds

The odds for this UEFA Nations League A clash lean in favor of the home team, Italy. With Belgium missing key players and struggling for consistency, the bookmakers tip an Italian victory. Here’s a look at the current betting odds:

Italy vs Belgium Betting Odds
Bet	Odds
Italy	1.97
Draw	3.36
Belgium	3.99

Italy’s b defensive record and historical upper hand over Belgium make them the favorites. However, with Belgium’s potent attack, a draw or away win shouldn’t be entirely ruled out.

Italy vs Belgium Live Streaming

The UEFA Nations League live broadcast is present in India with the Sony Sports Network. The Live streaming of the matches is available on the SonyLiv website and app. Fans can watch Italy vs Belgium live streaming on SonyLiv at 12:15 AM on Friday.

Italy Team Analysis

Italy Recent Performance

Recent Form: WWLDL Italy has been in solid form recently, winning four out of their last five games. They clinched impressive victories against Israel and France but experienced a minor setback with a loss to Spain and a draw with Croatia. However, Italy’s inability to keep clean sheets is a concern, conceding goals in their last five matches. They have scored an average of 1.20 goals per game in this run.

Home team	Away team	Result
Israel	Italy	1-2 (Win)
France	Italy	1-3 (Win)
Switzerland	Italy	2-0 (Loss)
Croatia	Italy	1-1 (Draw)
Spain	Italy	1-0 (Loss)

Despite some defensive vulnerabilities, coach Luciano Spalletti’s squad has shown resilience and tactical acumen, making them favorites in this crucial UEFA Nations League clash.

Italy Key Players

Italy, under the guidance of Luciano Spalletti, has several key players who could make a significant impact against Belgium. Davide Frattesi, the team’s top scorer in the tournament with 2 goals, continues to be a midfield powerhouse. His ability to control the game and contribute offensively will be crucial. Mateo Retegui and Giacomo Raspadori are expected to lead the attack, with Retegui’s ability to hold up play and Raspadori’s nimbleness providing diverse attacking options. Sandro Tonali, anchoring the midfield, will look to dictate the tempo and break down Belgium’s attacks. 

Expected lineup for Italy:

• Goalkeeper: Gianluigi Donnarumma
• Defenders: Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori
• Midfielders: Andrea Cambiaso, Davide Frattesi, Sandro Tonali, Samuele Ricci, Federico Dimarco
• Attackers: Mateo Retegui, Giacomo Raspadori

Key individual battles include Frattesi vs. Tielemans in midfield and Retegui vs. Faes in attack. These matchups could be pivotal in determining the game’s outcome.

Italy Suspensions & Injuries

With several key players on the injury list, Italy’s squad depth will be tested against Belgium. There are no suspensions for the Italian team, but injuries could significantly impact their performance, especially in the forward and defensive lines.

Player	Injury	Expected return
Giorgio Scalvini	Cruciate ligament injury	Early February 2025
Gianluca Scamacca	Cruciate ligament injury	Late April 2025
Alessandro Florenzi	Cruciate ligament injury	Late February 2025
Rafael Toloi	Muscle injury	Doubtful
Alex Meret	Muscle injury	Late October 2024
Nicolò Barella	Muscle injury	Late October 2024
Marco Brescianini	Hamstring injury	Early November 2024
Federico Chiesa	Knock injury	A few days
Davide Calabria	Muscle injury	Late October 2024
Moise Kean	Back injury	Late October 2024
Stephan El Shaarawy	Muscle injury	Late October 2024
Manuel Lazzari	Muscle injury	Late October 2024

The absence of key players like Gianluca Scamacca and Nicolò Barella could affect Italy’s attacking potency and midfield control. Coach Luciano Spalletti will need to rely on the squad’s depth to navigate these challenges successfully.

Italy Tactics and Formation

Italy Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-5-2
• Key Forwards: Mateo Retegui, Giacomo Raspadori
• Midfield Quartet: Andrea Cambiaso, Sandro Tonali, Samuele Ricci, Federico Dimarco
• Defensive Trio: Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori

Given the injuries to key players like Scamacca and Barella, Luciano Spalletti is likely to lean on a balanced 3-5-2 formation, prioritizing midfield control and wing play.

Tactical Approach:

• Offensive Setup:
  • Utilize wingbacks Cambiaso and Dimarco to stretch the Belgian defense.
  • Raspadori and Retegui to exploit any gaps in Belgium’s backline.
• Defensive Strategy:
  • Solid three-man defense led by Bastoni.
  • Donnarumma acting as the last line of a resilient defense.
• Midfield Control:
  • Tonali is pivotal in transitioning play from defense to attack.
  • Frattesi to continue his recent goal-scoring form.

Italy’s emphasis on solid midfield play and exploiting the wings could be crucial against Belgium’s shaky defense.

Belgium Team Analysis

Belgium Recent Performance LWLDW

Belgium has had a mixed bag of results in their last five matches, which is reflected in their recent form of LWLDW. They’ve had a couple of standout performances, but inconsistency has been an issue. Belgium managed to keep two clean sheets in their last five games and have been averaging one goal per game. However, their away form has been shaky, as they have not secured a win in their last three away matches across all competitions.

Home team	Away team	Result
France	Belgium	2-0 (Loss)
Belgium	Israel	3-1 (Win)
France	Belgium	1-0 (Loss)
Ukraine	Belgium	0-0 (Draw)
Belgium	Romania	2-0 (Win)

Their defense has shown patches of resilience, but they will need to be at their best to keep Italy’s attack at bay. Consistency will be key if they want to climb the standings.

Belgium Key Players

Expected lineup for Belgium:

• Goalkeeper: Koen Casteels
• Defenders: Timothy Castagne, Wout Faes, Zeno Debast, Arthur Theate
• Midfielders: Youri Tielemans, Orel Mangala, Dodi Lukebakio, Jérémy Doku, Charles De Ketelaere
• Forward: Loïs Openda

Kevin De Bruyne stands out as a crucial playmaker for Belgium, having scored 2 goals in this tournament so far. His creative prowess and vision will be pivotal in breaking down Italy’s defensive lines.

Loïs Openda, leading the front line, can pose a significant threat with his pace and finishing abilities. The battle between Openda and Italy’s central defender Alessandro Bastoni will be key.

Jérémy Doku and Charles De Ketelaere will aim to exploit Italy’s flanks, creating scoring opportunities for the team.

Belgium Suspensions & Injuries

Injuries have hit Belgium hard ahead of their crucial match against Italy. Key player Kevin De Bruyne, who has been instrumental with 2 goals in the tournament so far, is nursing a groin injury. His absence will be a significant blow to the team’s creative output. Jan Vertonghen and Alexis Saelemaekers, both crucial in defense, are also out with injuries, leaving gaps that coach Domenico Tedesco will need to fill.

Here’s the full injury list:

Player	Injury	Expected return
Arnaud Bodart	Knock injury	Doubtful
Jan Vertonghen	Achilles tendon injury	Late October 2024
Alexis Saelemaekers	Ankle injury	Late October 2024
Kevin De Bruyne	Groin injury	A few days
Ameen Al Dakhil	Illness	A few days
Julien Duranville	Thigh injury	Early November 2024

With significant players missing, Belgium will need to rely on their squad depth to overcome these setbacks.

Belgium Tactics and Formation

Belgium’s Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-4-2-1
• Key Forward: Loïs Openda
• Wing Play: Dodi Lukebakio and Jérémy Doku

Belgium typically adopts a 3-4-2-1 setup, which emphasizes a balanced approach with solid defensive and offensive capabilities. Loïs Openda spearheads the attack, supported by the creative play of Charles De Ketelaere just behind him. Dodi Lukebakio and Jérémy Doku, stationed on the wings, offer pace and crossing ability, ensuring width in their attack. Belgium’s midfield, featuring Youri Tielemans and Orel Mangala, is tasked with breaking up play and distributing the ball effectively. Given the defensive injuries, Wout Faes, Zeno Debast, and Arthur Theate will need to step up to maintain solidity at the back.

Italy vs Belgium Head-to-Head Statistics

Analyzing the last five meetings between Italy and Belgium illustrates a clear pattern of dominance by Italy. The Azzurri have consistently come out on top, winning four out of the five encounters. Belgium managed to secure a single victory in this sequence.

Home	Away	Result
Italy	Belgium	3-1
Belgium	Italy	0-2
Belgium	Italy	1-2
Belgium	Italy	3-1
Italy	Belgium	2-1

Italy’s historical performance against Belgium will provide them with a psychological advantage going into this UEFA Nations League A fixture.

Venue and Weather

Stadio Olimpico in Rome, a revered venue with a seating capacity of over 70,000, will host the Italy vs. Belgium clash. This iconic stadium has witnessed numerous historic football moments, adding a layer of prestige to this UEFA Nations League A fixture. Weather conditions are expected to be challenging, with light rain, a temperature of around 12°C, high humidity at 92%, and a mild wind speed of 1.5 m/s. Such conditions might favor Italy’s b defensive setup, while Belgium, known for its quick transitions, might need to adapt its game to maintain possession and mitigate the slippery surface. Both teams will need to be wary of the increased chances of errors and injuries due to the weather.