Tehran, Iran – When the US elects its president, the affect of its alternative is felt around the globe, and few international locations are as instantly affected as Iran.
However because the US votes on Tuesday in an election through which Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are working neck-and-neck, in accordance with the ultimate opinion polls, Iran is grappling with a very difficult actuality, analysts say: Tensions with Washington seem poised to stay sky-high no matter who results in the White Home.
Democrat Harris and Republican Trump are gunning for the presidency at a time when a 3rd main Iranian strike on Israel seems virtually sure and issues over an all-out regional struggle persist.
Iranian Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei has promised a “tooth-crushing” response to Israel in retaliation for its first-ever claimed air strikes on Tehran and a number of different provinces on October 26.
Commanders with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are suggesting their subsequent motion towards Israel – which is anticipated to contain the Iranian military as effectively after 4 military troopers have been killed by Israeli bombs – will contain extra superior projectiles.
In opposition to this backdrop, each presidential candidates within the US have been expressing hardline views about Tehran. Harris referred to as Iran the “biggest adversary” of the US final month whereas Trump advocated for Israel hitting Iranian nuclear amenities.
On the similar time, each have signalled that they are going to be prepared to have interaction diplomatically with Iran.
Chatting with reporters in New York in September, Trump stated he was open to restarting negotiations on a nuclear deal. “We now have to make a deal as a result of the implications are unimaginable. We now have to make a deal,” he stated.
Harris has beforehand additionally supported a return to nuclear talks though her tone in direction of Iran has hardened extra not too long ago.
In line with Tehran-based political analyst Diako Hosseini, the large query for Iran amid all of that is which of the 2 presidential candidates could be extra ready to handle tensions.
“Trump offers extreme assist to Israel whereas Harris is extremely dedicated to the mainstream US agenda towards Iran,” he informed Al Jazeera.
Historical past of tensions
The historical past of the 2 candidates will even closely affect their potential future relations with Tehran.
A yr after changing into president in 2017, Trump unilaterally withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers, imposing the harshest-ever US sanctions on Iran, which encompassed its complete economic system.
He additionally ordered the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s prime common and its second strongest man after the supreme chief. Soleimani, the commander-in-chief of the Quds Power of the IRGC, was killed together with a senior Iraqi commander by a US drone in Iraq in January 2020.
After taking workplace in January 2021, the present US president, Joe Biden, and Harris continued with the enforcement of Trump’s sanctions, together with through the years when Iran was coping with the deadliest outbreak of COVID-19 within the Center East, which killed near 150,000 individuals.
The Biden administration has additionally significantly added to these sanctions, blacklisting many dozens extra people and entities with the introduced goal of concentrating on Iranian exports, limiting its army capabilities and punishing human rights abuses.
After an Iranian missile assault on Israel final month, Washington expanded sanctions on Iran’s petroleum and petrochemical sectors to negatively affect its crude exports to China, which had rebounded and grew over the previous few years regardless of the sanctions.
Trump has claimed he’ll choke off resilient Iranian exports by means of higher enforcement of the sanctions.
“Pursuing diplomacy with Trump is way more durable for Iran as a result of assassination of Normal Soleimani, nevertheless it’s not unimaginable,” Hosseini stated.
“Nevertheless, if a possible Harris administration is prepared, Iran wouldn’t have any main obstacles for direct bilateral talks. However, Iran is effectively and realistically conscious that no matter who takes over the White Home as president, diplomacy with Washington is now significantly far more tough than another time.”
For the reason that US withdrawal from the landmark nuclear accord, all dialogue with the US – together with failed efforts to revive the comatose nuclear settlement and a prisoner trade deal final yr – has been held not directly and thru intermediaries like Qatar and Oman.
‘Ways would possibly change’
The federal government of President Masoud Pezeshkian, comprised of representatives from reformist to hardline political factions throughout the Iranian institution, has tried to strike a tone that initiatives each moderation and energy.
Pezeshkian stated in a speech on Monday that Iran has been engaged in an “all-out financial struggle” and should stand as much as its opponents by boosting its native economic system. He has additionally repeatedly stated he desires to work to get the sanctions eliminated and is open to talks with the West.
“It’s unusual that the Zionist regime and its backers hold making claims about human rights. Violence, genocide, crimes and homicide are behind their apparently neat facade and neckties,” the president stated throughout his newest speech.
Chatting with state tv on Monday evening, Iran’s prime diplomat stated Tehran “doesn’t put that a lot worth” into who wins the presidential race within the US.
“The nation’s principal methods won’t be impacted by this stuff. Ways would possibly change, and issues could be accelerated or delayed, however we are going to by no means compromise on our fundamentals and objectives,” International Minister Abbas Araghchi stated.
Araghchi travelled to Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad, on Tuesday, the place he mentioned the “threats posed by the Zionist regime and the regional disaster” with prime officers, together with military chief Normal Asim Munir.
The IRGC continues to hold out a large-scale army operation within the southeastern province of Sistan and Baluchistan bordering Pakistan and Afghanistan, the place there have not too long ago been a number of armed assaults by a separatist group that Iran believes is backed by Israel.
The Jaish al-Adl group killed 10 members of the Iranian armed forces within the province on October 26 in a strike condemned by the United Nations Safety Council as a “heinous and cowardly terrorist assault”.
For the reason that assault, the IRGC stated it has killed eight members of the group and arrested 14.