Over the following 5 years, Vijayawada and Patna might play an enormous position within the energy equations in New Delhi. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Andhra Pradesh’s Chief Minister-in-waiting, N Chandrababu Naidu, each are veterans of coalition politics that led to 2014. Each are astute at bargaining and negotiating advanced coalition equations.
INDIA bloc members have already reached out to Naidu, however will he reply? Naidu was the convenor of the United Entrance in 1996 and performed a vital position within the NDA till 2004. He returned to the NDA in 2014, received a bifurcated Andhra Pradesh, however left it in 2018. He misplaced energy and rejoined the NDA after he was jailed in Andhra Pradesh by the YSRCP authorities. The BJP drove a troublesome cut price, made him wait and ultimately finalised a deal, extracting its pound of flesh by way of seats – it snagged six of the 25 Lok Sabha seats in Andhra regardless of its negligible vote share within the state.
Actually, through the 2014 election marketing campaign, the TDP even insisted that NaMo stands for Naidu and Modi (as an alternative of Narendra Modi).
Naidu will extract his pound of flesh from New Delhi. He’s a most strategic negotiator, affected person and calibrated. Given the numbers – round 238 seats for the BJP, the one largest get together, and 100 for runner-up Congress – it might appear troublesome for the INDIA bloc to cobble numbers. Even when it does, it might be a extremely unstable authorities.
Naidu is aware of this, however conserving the INDIA bloc choice in play solely will increase his bargaining energy with the NDA. And he’s anticipated to drive a really powerful cut price.
Particular standing for Andhra Pradesh is already a serious demand, however Naidu is extra more likely to deal with sustained financial advantages for his state. He was the architect of the Hyderabad IT dream, but it surely was reduce brief by a collection of political disasters. First, the successive losses in 2004 and 2009, after which the bifurcation of the state.
In 1999, Naidu stayed out of the cupboard and ensured the TDP bought the Speaker’s submit in parliament. He might observe an identical technique this time, which can put Modi’s negotiating expertise to check. Prime Minister Modi has by no means led a coalition and negotiating with Naidu might be a problem. During the last 10 years, the BJP has additionally misplaced a number of the Vajpayee-era coalition builders, and for the laborious and aggressive new lot, it will likely be a talent to be taught.
Given the numbers and the truth that he had a pre-poll alliance with the BJP, Naidu is extra probably to stick with the NDA. Coalition politics, nevertheless, is an unsure beast and it will likely be fascinating to observe how the road between Vijayawada and Delhi evolves over the following few days and years.
Nitish Kumar, too, is a veteran of coalition politics and had a stint within the NDA cupboard underneath Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee till he grew to become Chief Minister of Bihar in 2004. He has performed all sides and has switched alliances with ease. He was one of many authentic architects of the INDIA alliance, however walked over to the BJP months earlier than polls. He, too, will demand his pound of flesh, however he’s a coalition companion with the BJP within the state as nicely and will not need to upset the apple cart simply.
His final dream is the PM’s submit and if that’s on the desk, he might go wherever. That could be a lengthy shot with simply 14 seats. For now, he might leverage his numbers for cupboard berths in addition to funds for Bihar.